Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
