Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
